sir ivan rogers, quit this week amid the continuing political row about britain being unprepared for brexit. but with italy's banks in trouble, the greek crisis unresolved, elections in germany and france in 2017 and in italy by 2018, plus fears about the euro, how much of a mess is the european union and more importantly the eurozone actually in? michael? over the course of this year the attention will focus on german elections and french elections and dutch elections particularly and three countries there will be strong populist challenges. i believe gert builders in the netherlands will top the poll, but i suspect the other parties, for the first time in the netherlands, will save the person who topped the poll should not be in government. in france i suspect marine le pen will make it to the run—off and run the other candidates very close. in germany the germany the alternative the deutschland, the

anti—immigrant, anti—eu party will get more than 20% in the polls and may do better than the social democrats, the coalition partners. it will shake the confidence of the eu's current leadership. how much of that do you agree with? there are many parties in germany and italy who are pretty eurosceptic. yeah. the kind of picture that michael has just painted is correct. not much is going to happen until the german elections in the autumn so we have in front of us a long period of uncertainty and instability in which populist forces are going to mount an extraordinary challenge to the status quo. having said that, there is something else going on, which is extraordinary story, and terrifying, which could pull together the european union leaders who are going to be smart enough and convincing

enough to explain to the people what's going on in the world. i'm referring to the migrant phenomenon which is going to accelerate massively and is going to show, for the first time in european history, how the outside challenges can combine with inside challenges and make the situation untenable unless europeans work together. specifically on italy, how far are people concerned about the italian banks? i've seen debt write—downs of 50%, people are suggesting in reality many banks will be lucky to get 20% back on bad loans. in other words they are insolvent. the banking crisis in italy is one crisis and people have lost faith in the banking system and the government a long time ago. there was a very eloquent front cover of a magazine saying welcome back to the

past. italy is looking at 2017, looking back at what has been happening in italy and not expecting anything good from this new year. there is a generalised gloom and doom, despair, lack of any hope whatsoever. the banking crisis is just one of the aspects. lyse, we tend to look down one end of the telescope, brexit britain and the challenges here. how difficult to all these other challenges make it for any british government? you talk about the european union and we have discussed how disunited and shaky and fragile this edifice of the european union is. brexit was anotherjolt. it european union is. brexit was another jolt. it is european union is. brexit was anotherjolt. it is now very shaky ina yearwith anotherjolt. it is now very shaky in a year with major elections. for those two pillars, germany and france, looking inward, and you

can't look inward all the time. you have to take care of the external factors. brexit will force them to look inward as well. that is what could set in motion, and already has, along with the victory of donald trump in the usa, these political forces that are tearing at the whole ethos of the eu. the migration crisis was emblematic of just how divided europe is politically, socially, morally, in every which way in terms of how they responded. there was no eu response to that and there still isn't. from the united states, is the european project in serious trouble in 2017, and particularly the euro? the european project is in tremendous trouble and far worse than the people in the us are aware of. people are focused on the domestic situation. having watched the eu closely for several years, there's never been a crossroads like this

before and the idea of a closer union is so discredited at this point that it's almost not worth uttering the words. i've had this disagreement with annalisa before. she talks about a common european response to the immigrants and i think that's beyond the leadership of europe. you put those 28 or 27 leaders in a room and you have such competing, impossible to reconcile self interest that the immigrant crisis could be what divides it and what leads to gradual breaking away. hungary, for example, and some of those countries surrounding hungary ta ke those countries surrounding hungary take one view, germany and other. germany, italy, everyone's crisis point is different, and so is britain's. for any british prime minister or negotiating team, never mind affections from the civil service, to get the attention of any european leader, particularly angela merkel this year, will be difficult. it is. one of the points made by two

of the principal negotiators is that until the german elections concluded, it will be difficult to get the full focus and the full attention of everyone in europe on these negotiations. the point is also made that once negotiations are concluded, there needs to be agreement as much as possible across europe before any deal can be settled. there is an imperative on the prime minister and the british negotiating team to make clear, and i know the prime minister hopes to in the next week or so, what the core asked of the european union is. clarity in this process is absolutely critical to success. more important, what is the core ask of britain? you have your cake and you wa nt britain? you have your cake and you want to eat it. yes. europe might be able to respond. i expressed my softball, what is britain asking of the eu? we need to be clear about

what britain is requesting. it's not open—ended, the clock is ticking. once the trigger is pulled with article 50, they have two years. you cannot waste a year, even though a year with germany and france focusing on their elections, they will have to do something about brexit is brexit. it's notjust theresa may saying that, john claude yunker has said it, so has merkel, you have to get it done quickly. it will be up to britain to clarify, because i don't think anybody in the british government knows what brexit they want. i think they do. a critical thing for the eu is if those who are currently steering it play a clumsy hand, that will only strengthen what they considered to be populist forces. marine le pen has put the european institutions on notice that if british institutions are punished for leaving she will make that a rallying cry. it is also the case that if countries like

poland and hungary that take a very different line to the current eu court leadership see that leadership privileging its position, its ultra—federalist position privileging its position, its ultra —federalist position over some of their interests, that could create difficulties as well. can i ask some of you who cover these things to take a step back from this week ‘s headlines in britain. ivan rogers have left. many people would not be familiar with his name or the name of his successor. how important of these people who have been derided in some of the papers as the sir humphreys? how important are these people rather than the politicians? are good ambassador or high commissioner is gold dust. they are your eyes and ears in the country and they have... they are able to tell you forensically what the situation is. it is up to leaders to listen... or not. even though nobody should listen to

experts! they are the experts of all experts. ivan rogers said he knew the british system so well, he knew the british system so well, he knew the european system so well, he knew all the players. his replacement is also a very steady hand, but she's losing a key person. it is a tragedy for britain that he has resigned. simply because the world is getting so simply because the world is getting so complex, the old order is being replaced by completely unstable and unpredictable orders. diplomats in this moment are keyed to the national interest because they understand the way the world is and the way it's going. the fact he has resigned and he has warned the civil servants, please speak to the power, it's very, very important. let's not forget that the british diplomatic service is considered to be one of the best in the world. rogers is a patriot, he is an example of the

best of the foreign office. the fact that he has left is very, very significant and very, very serious. the world is getting very, very complex and to look only at the british interests and not looking at the big picture is very dangerous for the national interest. it also struck me in his farewell e—mail to the civil servants when he was pointing out that whitehall and in general britain doesn't have the negotiating expertise, doesn't have the staff, doesn't know enough about how to do the trade deals and he also, in his earlier memo which leaked, pointed out that even after this two—year process it will be up to each national parliament to approve the deal and it could fail at that point. he said some pretty important things that bats the prime minister was not interested in hearing. i'm conscious that the idea of some kind of goldilocks brexit, that everybody likes, not too hard oi’ that everybody likes, not too hard or soft or hot or cold, won't even

work within your own party. the least of the prime minister ‘s worries is the conservative party. there's a strong consensus behind the type of brexit most conservatives would like see. philip hammond against theresa may, big differences. i don't think so. it's interesting to see the way opinion has moved outside the conservative party. this week and is capable —— vince cable made it clear he thought freedom of movement shouldn't continue. who would have imagined i2 months ago that someone is committed as vince to the liberal democrat tradition would have said one of the core freedoms of the eu should no longer apply? theresa may she's -- says she wants workers for the farming community and others save they want banking and service sectors to have freedom of movement. it's entirely possible to have a migration policy that allows britain to get the skills it needs in the

sectors that matter without accepting freedom of movement as it currently operates within the eu. you will say but not being the single market. you're not going to say that! the problem with the muddled thinking is that britain seems still not able to understand that you can't have your cake and eat it. you can't have the single market and not freedom of movement. it's not on the table! it's not on the table! i don't think we do want to be in the single market. the cake is not on the table. balatoni. president putin has engineered a rapprochement of sorts with a key player in nato — turkey — and is using it to drive a peace process of sorts in syria. it comes as donald trump prepares to take over the us presidency amid concerns he is close — perhaps too close — to putin, and picking a fight with china and possibly iran. as mr trump remains a riddle wrapped in an enigma, where are the flashpoints we should worry about in 2017? and is putin playing a weak hand with great skill? the report by the us intelligence

agency, the bits that have made public, it does suggest that russia really played a very strong role in the us election, quite an extraordinary role, whether it made any difference in the voting is a matter of contention. i don't think there's much doubt it made a difference. mr trump doesn't think so. they had a very concerted, well directed, successful 16 and 18 month intrusion into the democratic pa rty‘s intrusion into the democratic party's e—mails which i blame the democrats. they were sloppy. we are all pretty sloppy with their e—mails and they left themselves to blame, they were completely wide open to state intrusion and putin's people do that sort of thing extraordinarily well. it was very effective. it had to have swung some votes towards trump, but so did a lot of other things. nobody is

saying trump is the president because of putin, but he enters with this very cloudy relationship with putin that will be problematic. this very cloudy relationship with putin that will be problematicm is extraordinary in our lifetime to have any american leader being that close to the leader of the kremlin, particularly somebody who used to be in the kgb. it sounds like science fiction and if ten years ago somebody would have told you rub candid and would have been elected with the help of a former kgb agent, it would have sounded crazy. that script would never work! actually we need to brace ourselves because we are entering a very, very dark year. 2017, especially in europe with all these elections, and clear evidence that russia has been waging cyber warfare to influence the american elections, of all countries, is something that might really put us on alert. we've got a number of

elections in europe and putin has already been trying to meddle with germany, public opinion, in many ways. he's been doing it in the former warsaw pact countries, he's been doing it everywhere. we need to been doing it everywhere. we need to be aware. this is a year in which what we have taken for granted, the international law and order, the kind of force of the law, is going to be replaced. we know that francois phil on in france is quite receptive to russia playing a bigger role in europe. we know that putin is playing what could be seen as a very wea k is playing what could be seen as a very weak hand, but playing it very well. that's exactly what american diplomats will concede. a week and played extraordinary well. in december 2015 when russia decided to intervene militarily in syria, there

we re intervene militarily in syria, there were warnings from barack obama it would be another afghanistan, a quagmire where russia will get bogged down. what has happened instead is that russia, president putin has had the projection of military force and forced the conclusion he wanted. i spent most of 2016 going to one security forum after another with western leaders saying we will not accept the changing of borders in our time by force, we will not accept the post—1945 order will be changed. russia went into crimea and it is still there. russia not only shifted the momentum on the battlefield in syria, saved president assad from collapse on free —— key front lines, it's a key player on the battlefield andl it's a key player on the battlefield and i was in aleppojeering the last stages of the war for that important city. then he shifted to the negotiating table. it was russia and turkey which negotiated the

evacuation from aleppo. russia and turkey is driving the talks to take place not in geneva of vienna or paris, but in russia. it's extraordinary. even british diplomats will concede that vladimir putin went from zero influence in the middle east in 2015th putin went from zero influence in the middle east in 20 15th to now being the major player with the military force and the political will to back it up. golf states are saying we wish our ally was president putin. saudi arabia, the gulf states and also iran, the impact of russia putting its weight about and being successful. has that changed things? it's always been askedif changed things? it's always been asked if russia and iran ci die in syria, but they don't. they have a shared interest in seeing president assad, or at least his regime, remaining, but they have different strategic interests. russia wants its military base, iran wants to maintain its corridor to lebanon and

has bhullar, it wants its access to forces. the question will be once president trump enters the mix. he seems to want to work with president putin, but he also wants to undermine iran's influence. if you're going to work in syria, it's ha rd you're going to work in syria, it's hard to square that circle. how do you see president trump's relations, potential relations, with mr putin? do you see that as a worried that britain should be concerned about? one should be alive to some of these concerns. there are people who have beenin concerns. there are people who have been in the trump entourage who have said things about putin that give me cause for concern. there are others in the trump transition team who have been quite robust towards russia. it is an area of concern. but we should take one step back. many of the games president putin has made which cause me concerned and heartache are

asa cause me concerned and heartache are as a consequence of the weakness shown by president obama. we had an opportunity to intervene in syria in 2013. the british parliament much to my regret chose not to. present an obama said that was the reason they didn't do it. the president of the united states could have shown greater resolution and clarity at that time. it's a great shame that in the final days of his presidency there's been an element of displacement activity on the part of president obama and john kerry. they have concentrated the united nations about resolutions on israeli settle m e nts about resolutions on israeli settlements rather than accepting that they played a much bigger role in the clips of western power in the middle east and the unhappy consequences that lyse has alluded to with god states looking to russia for a role. they play a heavier role and carry it a heavier responsibility than anything mr trump has to have on his conscious

at this moment. how far do you buy that? the other way of looking at that? the other way of looking at that same story is that after afghanistan and after iraqi, obama did not want to get involved in some kind of protracted conflict. the opinion polls and mps here said the same thing. there's a consistency to the eight years of obama's foreign policy. it's been a bit ambiguous in afghanistan but he's not wanted more interventions and i think he inherited a truly disastrous situation from the prior administration and has spent eight years trying to cope with it and now it goes back the other way. it's a very confusing time for american foreign policy. six months ago obama was proud of what he had accomplished and what he had not been dragged into and i think that's no longer the case. i was with us diplomats the day the us went into syria and they were convinced putin was making a disaster error and he's

—— it's paid off beautifully for putin. on the other hand, if you wa nt putin. on the other hand, if you want to be more optimistic, it is true that this new international scenario does put a lot of pressure on the europeans. it is true that the bombing of civilians by the russians in syria has caused all the european leaders to really think long and hard, what are we going to do? if america doesn't in gauge, if america decides, as trump has said, that he doesn't want to pay any more for nato, the europeans by necessity have to come together in order to ensure their own security. the last european council, there was no discussion of what had been happening in syria and no resolution to deal with what russia had been responsible for. it's only in the uk that there is a live debate about the need to increase defence

spending. that's not correct. there are plenty of smaller countries. spending. that's not correct. there are plenty of smaller countriesm you've been watching eu politics you would see there's been an acceleration in terms of common defence spending, common research. more spending? but not more men and more material. the baltic states are concerned. if you look at who is putting forces on the eastern border of nato come it is america, canada, britain. one of the concerns that i haveis britain. one of the concerns that i have is that the european union, for the reasons we discussed at the beginning, is turning inward and while there is a belief that they should be institutional change within europe, what there isn't is the resolution in dealing with the anti—democratic forces that putin has marshalled. we've come full circle. we started off with michael saying there was huge internal issues to reserve “—

saying there was huge internal issues to reserve —— resolve, and there are in the eu, but they will be forced to confront the problems of their unity, or the lack of it, when president trump stalks about nato and you have to pay your own way. what about when president trump starts talking about easing the sanctions on russia over ukraine. angela merkel were leading the way in terms of russia and dealing with ukraine. these are red button issues for europe in terms of values and principles. they cannot left then drift away. i suspect if marine le pen doesn't win, if francois phil on might have a chance, that will be the key moment in which we could see a real change in europe, especially on defence and security issues. france is very keen. that will also have a strong influence on brexit negotiations. we have one minute left. i wanted to ask you if we'd missed what could be the scariest

story of the year, which is china, north korea, south korea, relations there and donald trump's attitude to china. we don't know what he will do, but it is interesting. and his attitude to nuclear proliferation, where has attitude has been its no problem. will it change in the oval office? we don't know, he hasn't clarified his view. he was very robust about north korea. judging from his tweets rather than major policy statement. whatever obama told him rattled him on that first day when obama first met with him after the election. trump expresses after the election. trump expresses a willingness to japan and south korea to get nuclear weapons. what he said would overturn their codes of nonproliferation. on that note, happy new year! that's it for this week. you can comment on the programme on twitter @gavinesler and engage with our guests. we're back next week at the same time. make a date with dateline london. goodbye. good morning. for many this morning

has been a rather grey affair. some thick fog still around so it's mainly hill fog, but because the winds are so light, we've seen fog at lower levels as well. the available york, around lancashire and merseyside, it's been quite nasty. and through the likes of the seven valley towards bristol. we have drizzle in the south—west. you can see these wonderful weather pictures sent in first thing this morning. that drizzle is because of a weather front sitting across southern parts of england which will

gradually petered out during the rest of the day. elsewhere the mist and fog is reluctant to clear. it could state drive much of the day. temperatures are a lot higher than yesterday. it doesn't feel that much warmer because we are under the cloud, but temperatures are better. northern ireland and scotland have the best chance of brightness and sunshine. perhaps eastern parts of the pennines once the fog clears. there could be a few spots of rain to western scotland later. with a cloud overnight, it means temperatures won't fall very low. it will be a mild night for most of us except for perhaps the glens of scotland. sunday, another great start. some fog patches will again be an issue if you're travelling. they will be slow to clear. for most it should be dry. drier in the south compared to today full if you're heading to the fa cup third round, it looks predominately cloudy.

perhaps northeast gotland and north—east england will see the best in the brakes of the cloud. temperatures between eight and 10 celsius. sunshine doesn't help much at this time of year. we did have told air to end the week. that's tracked east, freezing rain through the day for the low countries today. -20 the day for the low countries today. —20 in moscow. monday it changes in the uk. the high pressure keeping things stagnant whisks away and we have wet weather for all through the —— everyone on monday. low pressure to the north so strong winds and gales. potentially something more severe in the far north—west. we'll keep you posted. this is bbc news. the headlines at 12. the british red cross hasjoined senior doctors in warning of a crisis in nhs accident and emergency departments in england. a former american army soldier has been arrested after five people were shot dead at fort lauderdale airport in florida. the megafires ravaging north american forests.

how wildfires are becoming increasingly common and destructive. also in the next hour... the spiralling cost of repairing potholes in england and wales. councils predict the repair bill could reach £14 billion within two years. stay with us here on bbc news. in half an hour the click team is in las vegas at the massive electronics show ces.